(ANSA) - BELGRADE, MAY 11 - A simultaneous shock to the terms of trade and uncertainty for households, both of which influence their propensity to save, would create "significant risks to growth and inflation" if it occurred on the scale seen with the war in Ukraine and the subsequent energy shock. This is according to a study included in a preview of the European Central Bank's economic bulletin, which examines the potential effects of the Middle East war. The analysis, assuming an energy shock similar to that of 2022-23, outlines a scenario in which "the worsening terms of trade erodes real income, as imported energy prices rise while nominal wages adjust slowly, weighing on consumption." This raises inflation by 0.4 percentage points—almost entirely due to the energy component—and slows growth by 0.1 percentage point in 2027. In 2028, these effects will be less pronounced. (ANSA).